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7

Amy's Light

5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 81

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 91 · 7f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 91 par26/10C5OR 91C7 @ Aqueduct 07/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 87 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 87 parC5 @ Aqueduct 26/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m1f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 95 par26/12C5OR 95C7 @ Aqueduct 09/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 83 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 83 parC7 @ Aqueduct 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 77 par10/04C7OR 77C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 6f110y Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 83 par14/05C5OR 83C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 7f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 75 parC5 @ Belmont Park 18/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 76 · 7f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 76 par18/09C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Belmont Park?9th6th+3
2026-06-20Belmont At The Big A?5th4th+1
2026-05-14Belmont At The Big A?3rd0th+3
2026-04-30Belmont At The Big A?3rd2nd+1
2026-04-10Aqueduct?4th3rd+1
2026-01-09Aqueduct?4th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/109/0114/0518/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/10/20255th16/116%43%+0.27
07/11/20256th25/10%38%+0.38
26/12/20256th12/137%17%-0.20
09/01/20264th15/261%40%-0.21
10/04/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
30/04/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
14/05/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
20/06/20265th10/382%43%-0.40
18/09/20269th33/10%27%+0.27