Caradise

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 59

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Saratoga	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-09	Saratoga	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-19	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-15	Belmont At The Big A	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-04-12	Aqueduct	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-03-22	Aqueduct	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength25%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/11/2025	3rd	14/1	26%	50%	+0.24
10/01/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
27/02/2026	5th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
22/03/2026	8th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
12/04/2026	5th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
15/05/2026	7th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
19/06/2026	4th	12/1	37%	25%	-0.12
09/08/2026	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
30/08/2026	5th	50/1	0%	56%	+0.56