3
Cararra
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 3 · OR 67
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 9-10 · tight 86/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 30/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |