Save Us Melania
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
61%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-05-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/03/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/5 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |