Thirteen Red Flags
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 10 · OR 64
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Belmont Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/06/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 01/09/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 20/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |