Timia

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 70

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

12%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Delaware Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-08-26	Saratoga	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-06-20	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-05-24	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-04-30	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-04-02	Aqueduct	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 10-10 · tight 90/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/02/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	80%	+0.14
06/03/2026	2nd	6/4	92%	80%	-0.12
13/03/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	50%	-0.18
02/04/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	83%	+0.07
30/04/2026	2nd	7/4	91%	80%	-0.11
24/05/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	83%	-0.04
20/06/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	71%	-0.10
26/08/2026	6th	4/1	79%	17%	-0.62
03/09/2026	5th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58