Vino Frizzante
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |