Empress New Groove
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 86
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-12-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 07/12/2025 | 9th | 13/8 | 91% | 11% | -0.80 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |