12
Mia Sophia
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 12 · OR 58
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 51/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength21%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/08/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 11/06/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 16/07/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 06/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |