Pay The Bills
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 69
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-01-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 21/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |