Sweet Mackenzie
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 06/06/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |