Adero
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 100
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2023 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 03/05/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |