IvyArcIvyArc
4

Admiral Dennis

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 96

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength40%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fair Grounds 21/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/12/2024 · OR 94 par21/12C5OR 94C6 @ Fair Grounds 20/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fas 119 · beat its mark20/01/2025 · OR 93 parC0 @ Oaklawn Park 23/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fas 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/02/2025 · OR 98 par23/02C?OR 98C0 @ Keeneland 08/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 94 · 1m1f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2025 · OR 94 parBHA104 @ Delaware Park 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fas 118 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 104 par14/06104OR 104BHA106 @ Ellis Park 10/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 106 · 1m 120 · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 106 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 103 · 1m1f 122 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 103 par9/05C6OR 103C6 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 100 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 100 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fas 122 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 96 par27/08C6OR 96projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?7th7th0
2026-05-09Churchill Downs?6th6th0
2025-08-10Ellis ParkBHA1063rd9th−5
2025-06-14Delaware ParkBHA1041st7th−5
2025-04-08Keeneland?4th-2th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/128/049/0527/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength45%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/12/20244th4/696%25%-0.71
20/01/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
23/02/20256th16/116%58%+0.43
08/04/20254th16/116%50%+0.34
14/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
10/08/20253rd13/891%60%-0.31
09/05/20266th6/492%17%-0.75
28/06/20267th10/147%0%-0.47
27/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12