7
Sandman
4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 101
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼4
Strength100%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: +3.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2025-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2025-05-17 | Pimlico | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -11.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 23/02/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/05/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |