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5

Tip Top Thomas

4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 102

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 24/08/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f Fas 11924/08C6C0 @ Belmont At The Big A 05/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2024 · OR 91 parC6 @ Keeneland 08/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 99 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark08/04/2025 · OR 99 par8/04C6OR 99C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark25/05/2025 · OR 98 parC1 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 102 par5/07C1OR 102C5 @ Aqueduct 08/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 111 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 111 parC6 @ Saratoga 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 105 par26/07C6OR 105C0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 103 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 103 par29/08C?OR 103projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?5th-1th+5
2026-07-26Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2025-11-08Aqueduct?3rd2nd+1
2025-07-05Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-5th+5
2025-05-25Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2025-04-08Keeneland?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0825/0526/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
05/10/20242nd11/486%88%+0.02
08/04/20254th7/491%63%-0.28
25/05/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
05/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
08/11/20253rd2/189%33%-0.56
26/07/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
29/08/20265th15/890%20%-0.70