Escapades
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |