11
Ghostwriter
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 75
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Belmont Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 57/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength21%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 63% | -0.29 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/09/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |