2
Aibell
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |