1
Considerate City
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |