Morning Prayer

3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 87

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-19	Saratoga	?	2nd	1st	+1	8.6
2026-07-04	Saratoga	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-07	Saratoga	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-04-16	Aqueduct	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2025-10-23	Belmont At The Big A	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-09-27	Belmont At The Big A	?	10th	11th	−1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 61/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/09/2025	10th	6/1	68%	18%	-0.50
23/10/2025	2nd	14/1	26%	91%	+0.65
16/04/2026	4th	13/8	91%	70%	-0.21
07/06/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	91%	+0.54
04/07/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
19/08/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	86%	+0.07