4
Silly Season
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 26/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |