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2

Captain Cook

4yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 104

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼4
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: +4.4
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 27/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f Fas 11927/10C6C6 @ Aqueduct 28/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 95 · 7f Slo 119 · beat its mark28/12/2024 · OR 95 parC5 @ Aqueduct 01/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 1m1f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/02/2025 · OR 100 par1/02C5OR 100C0 @ Aqueduct 05/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 99 · 1m1f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2025 · OR 99 parC1 @ Belmont At The Big A 10/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 107 · 1m1f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 107 par10/05C1OR 107C5 @ Churchill Downs 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 108 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 108 parC0 @ Saratoga 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 106 · 7f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 106 par23/08C?OR 106C1 @ Keeneland 18/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 115 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 115 parC0 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 108 · 1m1f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 108 par24/01C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-24Gulfstream?4th-2th+5
2025-10-18Keeneland?2nd-4th+5
2025-08-23Saratoga?2nd-4th+5
2025-06-29Churchill Downs?3rd2nd+1
2025-05-10Belmont At The Big A?3rd-3th+5
2025-04-05Aqueduct?4th-2th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/105/0423/0824/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20246th9/276%55%-0.22
28/12/20241st4/696%100%+0.04
01/02/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
05/04/20254th7/491%67%-0.24
10/05/20253rd11/893%75%-0.18
29/06/20253rd10/382%80%-0.02
23/08/20252nd20/10%86%+0.86
18/10/20252nd5/696%75%-0.21
24/01/20264th16/116%73%+0.57