4
Mischievous M
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |