Bobby M's Girl
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2024 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 78% | -0.15 |
| 17/11/2024 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/08/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |