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Chartist

3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 93

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 1f

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 28/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m 11928/09C6C7 @ Aqueduct 07/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 1m Fas 119 · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Gulfstream 29/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 76 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 76 par29/03C6OR 76C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 10/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 85 parC6 @ Delaware Park 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 83 par11/06C6OR 83C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 1m1f110y Fm 120 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Delaware Park 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 92 · 1m70y 118 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 92 par6/08C6OR 92C5 @ Kentucky Downs 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 94 · 1m2f110y Fm 118 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 94 par9/09C5OR 94projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kentucky Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-08-06Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-06-25Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-11Delaware Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-10Belmont At The Big A?4th5th−1
2026-03-29Gulfstream?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0910/056/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20255th16/116%60%+0.44
07/11/20253rd8/1597%67%-0.31
29/03/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37
10/05/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
11/06/20262nd2/189%89%-0.01
25/06/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
06/08/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
09/09/20263rd7/163%80%+0.17