IvyArcIvyArc
2

Counterintuitive

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 93

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 22/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 11922/08C6C6 @ Keeneland 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fm 119 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 90 par24/10C6OR 90C6 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 84 par29/08C6OR 84projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?2nd3rd−1
2025-10-24Keeneland?1st2nd−1
2025-08-22Saratoga?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0824/1029/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +16.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20254th11/486%57%-0.28
24/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
29/08/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05