7
Emerald Spun
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |