10
Nonconsecutivetrms
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 60/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 5/6 | 96% | 45% | -0.50 |
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 91% | +0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |