11
Toes
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2024-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 19/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 28/12/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |