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12

The Windhover

2yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 2

Curragh · Bermingham Cameras Irish European Breeders Fund (C & G) Maiden · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

€12,000 foal, €28,000 yearling, Persian Force gelding outran long odds when fourth of 15 in minor event at this course (6.3f, good to soft) on debut 21 days ago. Learned on the job there and he holds place claims, for all this looks a competitive race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength35%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 6f63y Yie 127 · HIGHER CLASS13/09C5
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Curragh?4th0th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20264th66/10%79%+0.79