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Big Gossey

9yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 1 · OR 104

Curragh · Coolmore Sioux Nation Concorde Stakes (Listed) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remarkable course specialist with 10 wins here including 4 over C&D. Pulled clear with an improving 3-y-o when ¾-length second in the 7-runner Renaissance Stakes at this course (6f, heavy, 12/1) 7 days ago. Leading claims with tongue strap back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 107 · 7f Sft 135 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 107 par28/031OR 1071 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 107 · 5f Gd 138 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 107 · 6f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 107 par23/051OR 1071 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 107 · 6f Gd 136 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 107 · 7f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 107 par19/071OR 1071 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 107 · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 107 parBHA107 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 107 · 1m Goo 142 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 107 par29/08107OR 1071 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 106 · 5f Yie 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Curragh 27/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 104 · 6f Hvy 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2026 · OR 104 par27/091OR 104projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-27Curragh12nd2nd+0
2026-09-13Curragh110th9th+1
2026-08-29CurraghBHA1079th21th−10
2026-08-09Curragh15th5th+0
2026-07-19Curragh12nd2nd+0
2026-06-28Curragh11st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0328/0629/0827/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength76%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
27/04/20269th40/10%43%+0.43
23/05/20262nd18/15%89%+0.84
28/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
19/07/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
09/08/20265th7/282%0%-0.82
29/08/20269th25/10%50%+0.50
13/09/202610th40/10%44%+0.44
27/09/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46