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9

Carolina Jetstream

4yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 6 · OR 103

Curragh · Coolmore Sioux Nation Concorde Stakes (Listed) · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up in a 1m Group 2 here in May (66/1) and ran to a similar level when filling the same position in a listed event at Killarney in August. Out of her depth in the Matron Stakes last time but should prove competitive back in this grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA91 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 91 · 7f Std 133 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 91 par16/0191OR 91BHA92 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 92 · 1m Std 135 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 96 · 7f14y Std 138 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 96 par3/042OR 961 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m2f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 95 par1 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 94 · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 94 par24/051OR 941 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 105 · 7f213y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m2f GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 105 par27/061OR 1051 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 105 · 1m30y Gd 130 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 104 · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 104 par12/091OR 104projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Leopardstown18th7th+1
2026-08-21Killarney12nd2nd0
2026-06-27Curragh18th7th+1
2026-06-17Royal Ascot16th6th+0
2026-05-24Curragh12nd2nd+0
2026-04-19Curragh110th10th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0119/0427/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength94%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
20/02/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
03/04/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
19/04/202610th80/10%18%+0.18
24/05/20262nd66/10%91%+0.91
17/06/20266th33/10%64%+0.64
27/06/20268th66/10%0%0.00
21/08/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
12/09/20268th66/10%13%+0.13