IvyArcIvyArc
3

King Cuan

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 7 · OR 105

Curragh · Coolmore Sioux Nation Concorde Stakes (Listed) · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went close in a 6f Group 3 here last season and stepped up on his return when 2 lengths fourth of 15 to Mission Central in listed race at Naas (5f, good), Off another 160 days since but he's a player at this level if fully tuned up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA99 @ Naas 15/10/2023 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 99 · 7f Sft 131 · beat its mark15/10/2023 · OR 99 par15/1099OR 991 @ Cork 06/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark06/04/2025 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Fairyhouse 06/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 96 · 6f Gd 139 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 96 par6/0696OR 961 @ Curragh 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 102 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 102 par1 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 104 · 5f Yie 133 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 104 par31/081OR 1041 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 104 · 6f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 104 par1 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 109 · 6f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 109 par18/101OR 1091 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 109 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 108 · 5f Gd 135 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 108 par27/041OR 108projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-27Naas14th4th0
2026-04-04Cork13rd3rd0
2025-10-18Ascot117th16th+1
2025-09-28Curragh12nd2nd+0
2025-08-31Tipperary13rd3rd0
2025-06-29Curragh13rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1029/0618/1027/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20231st4/596%100%+0.04
06/04/20255th3/184%43%-0.41
06/06/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
29/06/20253rd6/168%80%+0.12
31/08/20253rd5/174%83%+0.10
28/09/20252nd13/266%90%+0.24
18/10/202517th16/116%11%-0.05
04/04/20263rd11/893%78%-0.15
27/04/20264th5/174%79%+0.05