6
Lewis Carroll
3yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 3 · OR 85
Curragh · Coolmore Sioux Nation Concorde Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 13.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Curragh | BHA87 | 4th | 14th | −8 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-06-04 | Curragh | ? | 9th | 18th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 60/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |