4
Loughrea
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 103
Curragh · Coolmore Sioux Nation Concorde Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲8
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA91 | 1st | 11th | −8 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA86 | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 11th | −7 |
| 2025-10-19 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 14th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -14.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |