2
Benevento
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 8 · OR 97
Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA98 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA98 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA98 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | BHA100 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lingfield | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Chester | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 03/05/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 21/06/2025 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 12/09/2026 | 16th | 12/1 | 37% | 6% | -0.31 |