1
Eastwatch
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 7 · OR 98
Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA99 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA101 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA97 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Cork | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength40%
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 96% | +0.54 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 65% | -0.19 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 13/09/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |