6
Johnny Soda
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 90
Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#8
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA85 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA87 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA85 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA80 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA76 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | BHA77 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 29/08/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |