7
Lady Lilac
4yo Filly · 9-1 · Draw 10 · OR 85
Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap · 1m 1f
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA87 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA88 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Gowran Park | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA84 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA80 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.05 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 28/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |