8
Retracement
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 9 · OR 85
Curragh · 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA86 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Leopardstown | BHA87 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA88 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA88 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Leopardstown | BHA82 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Curragh | BHA82 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 15/08/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 46% | -0.14 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/10/2025 | 14th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.60 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 74% | +0.47 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 13/09/2026 | 17th | 25/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |