Carla Ridge
4yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 14 · OR 109
Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 7.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | BHA102 | 19th | 30th | −9 |
| 2025-08-24 | Naas | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Naas | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2024 | 1st | 100/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 30/03/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 20/06/2025 | 17th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 14/09/2025 | 19th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |