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10

Dancing Saxon

3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 1 · OR 99

Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved this year, winning minor events on first 2 outings before a close second in listed event at Naas in July. Scored cosily back in a handicap at Galway 5 days later and made the places in pattern company both starts since. Needs to eke out some further improvement but has to be respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Naas 04/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 21 · OR - · 5f205y Goo 1234/08C5C8 @ Dundalk 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 77 · 6f Std 129 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 77 parBHA75 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 75 · 7f Std 133 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 75 par17/1075OR 75BHA73 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 7f Std 126 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 73 parBHA74 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 74 · 6f150y Gd 128 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 74 par11/0774OR 741 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 80 · 5f205y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 80 · 7f Yie 140 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 80 par27/0780OR 801 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 5f205y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 98 · 7f Yie 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 98 par30/081OR 98projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Cork12nd2nd+0
2026-08-23Naas13rd3rd+0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA801st10th−7
2026-07-22Naas12nd2nd0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA741st9th−7
2026-02-06DundalkBHA731st9th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/086/0227/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/202510th16/116%55%+0.39
19/09/20254th5/174%77%+0.03
17/10/20256th9/488%58%-0.30
06/02/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
11/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
22/07/20262nd25/10%93%+0.93
27/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
23/08/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03
30/08/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12