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12

Focaccia

3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 88

Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f

#14

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Been kept busy since making her debut at the beginning of the season, winning a Bellewstown maiden in July and excelling herself when third in listed race at Cork the following month. Failed to repeat that at Ayr last time and others preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength27%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 72 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 72 par27/06C8OR 72C8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 5f3y Gd 129 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 69 parBHA76 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 76 par18/0776OR 761 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 75 · 5f205y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 75 parBHA78 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 78 · 5f205y Goo 130 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 78 par3/0878OR 78BHA78 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f GF 119 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 78 par1 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f205y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 78 par23/081OR 781 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 5f Yie 126 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par1 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 88 · 5f110y Sft 126 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 88 par18/091OR 88projClass-projected finish: 9th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr112th12th0
2026-08-30Cork13rd3rd0
2026-08-23Naas16th6th+0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA788th16th−7
2026-08-03NaasBHA782nd10th−7
2026-07-22Naas18th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0622/0723/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 9-17 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/20267th50/10%68%+0.68
03/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
18/07/20267th20/10%65%+0.65
22/07/20268th80/10%50%+0.50
03/08/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09
09/08/20268th10/147%36%-0.11
23/08/20266th150/10%29%+0.29
30/08/20263rd22/10%71%+0.71
18/09/202612th28/10%15%+0.15