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5

Fregada

4yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 9 · OR 90

Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful sort who made frame in listed company over this trip last 2 starts, including when third to Soul Love at Naas when last seen in July. She's a C&D winner but this demands a lot more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 28/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR - · 6f Goo 12828/09C8C0 @ Naas 25/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f205y Gd 1351 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 5f Yie 12631/0811 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 97 · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 97 par1 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 95 · 7f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 95 par10/051OR 951 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 94 par1 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 97 · 5f Gd 130 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 97 par14/061OR 971 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 96 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 96 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 96 par22/071OR 96projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Naas13rd3rd0
2026-06-28Curragh14th4th0
2026-06-14Cork16th6th0
2026-05-23Curragh16th6th+0
2026-05-10Leopardstown19th9th+0
2025-09-28Curragh111th11th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0928/0914/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 3-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20241st12/137%100%+0.63
25/06/20252nd9/153%75%+0.22
31/08/20257th14/126%50%+0.24
28/09/202511th33/10%0%0.00
10/05/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
23/05/20266th80/10%44%+0.44
14/06/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
28/06/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
22/07/20263rd10/147%86%+0.38