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7

Greydreambeliever

4yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 10 · OR 94

Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran creditably on several occasions this season before capitalising on the drop in grade to belatedly double her tally in 8-runner minor event at Gowran (7f, soft) 15 days ago by 7 lengths to City House. Can give her running again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA78 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 78 · 7f180y Sft 138 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 78 par8/0478OR 78BHA81 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 81 · 7f Sft 131 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 81 par1 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 82 par17/051OR 82BHA81 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 7f Yie 131 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 81 parBHA85 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 85 · 7f GF 128 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 85 par27/0685OR 851 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 7f Yie 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 85 parBHA89 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 139 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 89 par7/0889OR 891 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 89 · 7f Yie 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 89 parBHA87 @ Gowran Park 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 7f Yie 129 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 87 par19/0987OR 87projClass-projected finish: 11th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Gowran ParkBHA871st11th−8
2026-08-30Cork18th8th+0
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA895th15th−8
2026-07-30Galway14th4th0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA859th18th−8
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA812nd11th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0412/067/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 4-17 · tight 44/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength33%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20262nd15/261%93%+0.33
22/04/20262nd2/189%90%+0.01
17/05/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
12/06/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
27/06/20269th9/276%20%-0.56
30/07/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
07/08/20265th7/163%33%-0.30
30/08/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
19/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11