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Likedbymike

4yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 94

Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful filly. Made the most of a good opportunity when doubling her career tally in a minor event at Naas and followed up in 8-runner listed race at Cork (5f, good to soft, 11/4) 35 days ago by ¾ length from Erosandpsyche. This is tougher under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲4
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA79 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 5f Sft 130 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 79 par19/0479OR 791 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 84 · 5f Gd 130 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 84 par1 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 96 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 96 par17/051OR 961 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 96 · 5f Gd 130 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 96 · 5f Gd 139 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 96 par28/0696OR 96BHA96 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 96 · 5f Goo 131 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 95 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 95 par22/071OR 95BHA94 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 5f205y Goo 134 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 94 par1 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 94 · 5f Yie 128 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 94 par30/081OR 94projClass-projected finish: 6th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Cork11st1st0
2026-08-03NaasBHA941st11th−9
2026-07-22Naas110th10th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA963rd14th−9
2026-06-28CurraghBHA969th20th−9
2026-06-14Cork12nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0414/0622/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 3-17 · tight 38/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength42%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20262nd9/276%89%+0.13
27/04/20262nd28/10%93%+0.93
17/05/20264th7/163%67%+0.04
14/06/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
28/06/20269th11/271%47%-0.24
04/07/20263rd15/890%50%-0.40
22/07/202610th14/126%36%+0.09
03/08/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
30/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14