Royal Bay Cen
3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 11 · OR 100
Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Curragh | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Naas | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Chantilly | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Deauville | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 73% | -0.13 |
| 11/06/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 04/07/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 27/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |