15
Space Bear
3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 15 · OR 85
Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Yarmouth | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 12th | 16th | −3 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 6-17 · tight 54/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength13%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |