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9

Treasure Rose

4yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 16 · OR 81

Curragh · Hailey Equine Irish European Breeders Fund Brigid's Pastures Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 6f

#15

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back handicap wins at Down Royal and Fairyhouse this summer and wasn't discredited up in grade when staying on for fifth in listed race at Naas before finding it tougher next 2 starts. Ran respectably in handicap company last time but likely to find this harder.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲4
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 76 · 7f Yie 129 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 76 par11/10C8OR 76C8 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 76 · 1m50y Yie 130 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 76 · 1m31y Gd 130 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 76 par12/05C8OR 76BHA74 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 7f Sft 134 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 74 parBHA77 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 77 par1/0777OR 771 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 83 · 5f205y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 83 par1 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 83 par14/081OR 831 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 5f205y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 84 parBHA83 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 138 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 83 par21/0983OR 83projClass-projected finish: 12th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA835th14th−8
2026-08-23Naas18th8th+0
2026-08-14Cork18th8th0
2026-07-22Naas15th5th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA771st9th−7
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA741st9th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1019/0614/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 9-17 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength23%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20253rd7/163%87%+0.24
25/04/20262nd9/276%93%+0.17
12/05/20262nd6/594%92%-0.02
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
01/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
22/07/20265th25/10%71%+0.71
14/08/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
23/08/20268th50/10%0%0.00
21/09/20265th12/137%64%+0.27