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16

Apache Outlaw

6yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 3 · OR 68

Curragh · Business Plus Handicap · 6f

#16

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Came as close to ending his lengthy losing run as he has in a long time when close third in 7f Galway handicap in August. Backed that up with respectable efforts to be placed at Chester and Listowel since and he merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 90 · 6f1y Std 135 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 90 par3/043OR 90BHA73 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 73 · 6f60y Goo 133 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 73 parBHA70 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 70 · 7f45y Goo 140 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 70 par18/0670OR 70BHA70 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 70 · 7f Gd 120 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 parBHA71 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 71 · 6f150y Gd 133 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 71 par11/0771OR 71BHA71 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 71 · 5f Goo 131 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 71 parBHA70 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 70 · 7f Yie 140 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 70 par1/0870OR 704 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 68 · 7f127y Sft 123 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 68 parBHA68 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 68 · 7f15y Yie 131 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 68 par22/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 6th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22ListowelBHA683rd3rd0
2026-09-12Chester42nd2nd0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA703rd3rd0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA7111th11th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA715th5th0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA703rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0426/061/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 2452% of fieldRange 3-20 · tight 49/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength56%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 24.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/202611th14/126%9%-0.17
31/05/20266th7/163%58%-0.05
18/06/20264th11/142%79%+0.36
26/06/20263rd14/126%88%+0.61
11/07/20265th5/174%60%-0.14
18/07/202611th13/266%41%-0.25
01/08/20263rd4/179%83%+0.04
12/09/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
22/09/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04